Election Day may still feel like a long way off, but Virginia’s midterm races are already taking shape. P In the 5th District, incumbent Rep. John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84.24 percent of the vote. Democratic nominee Tom Perriello had a similarly dominant primary performance, coming away with 79.76 percent of the electorate. P Most pollsters expect McGuire to win reelection, but the margin has steadily narrowed in the lead-up to Election Day. With the start of early voting on September 18, and Election Day November 3, here’s what local experts—and one of the candidates—say about both men and their odds.
Primary thoughts
Despite party division popping up in contentious contests across the country, Perriello and McGuire both had straightforward paths to nomination.
Perriello was far-and-away the favorite to secure the Democratic nomination, after winning the conservative-leaning district in 2008.
“It’s always just a really special thing to ask people for their vote, and then when you get that nomination, you know people are putting their trust in you, and I think it means so much right now,” says Perriello.
Beyond building a coalition of voters heading into November, Perriello is pulling in some of his former primary opponents to hopefully flip VA-5 blue.
“We were immediately out the next day [after the primary] with Dr. K [Suzanne Krzyzanowski],” Perriello says. “Our side is every corner of the district, every race, every class, every generation coming together to push back against the stupidity, and very expensive stupidity, in Washington.”
McGuire’s nomination was all but guaranteed as a sitting Republican representative endorsed by President Donald Trump. His incumbency, and the political geography of VA-5, makes the path forward an uphill—but not insurmountable—climb for Perriello.
Candidate backgrounds
Tom Perriello
In 2008, Perriello was elected with 50.1 percent of the vote over Virgil Goode Jr. During his single term in Congress, he sponsored one bill that was enacted into law, and co-sponsored 13 others.
The sponsored bill, Veterans’ Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act of 2010 (HR4667), was an annual compensation adjustment based on the consumer price index.
Perriello also cast key votes, most notably in support of the Affordable Care Act. He credits his vote in favor of the ACA as the reason he lost his bid for reelection in 2010, but stands by the decision.
“I did 100 hours of town hall meetings on health care, and we specifically designed the Affordable Care Act to be a lifeline for rural health care, and rural leaders of hospitals and clinics are all in agreement that Obamacare and the Medicaid expansion were vital for keeping these rural clinics open,” says Perriello. “People know I lost my seat over the vote because the insurance lobbyists spent $5 million against me, and I knew they would do that. But that’s what you do: You go and you do the right thing for your district, even if it’s going to upset the lobbyists.”
Perriello was unseated in 2010 by Robert Hurt, who won with 50.8 percent of the electorate compared to the Democrat’s 47 percent.
After leaving office, Perriello remained in the political sphere. His career has bounced between roles with the U.S. Department of State and nonprofit work—namely leadership roles with the Center for American Progress Action Fund and Open Society Foundations. He also made an unsuccessful 2017 bid for governor, losing the primary to Ralph Northam, who was in office from 2018 to 2022.
Campaign finance reports from the Virginia Public Access Project show the Perriello campaign raised $2.14 million as of July 15, with $1.51 million on hand. The former congressman has pledged not to accept donations from corporate PACs, which is corroborated by his FEC filings. The largest contribution to TOM PERRIELLO FOR CONGRESS is $24,500, from the LURIA PERRIELLO VICTORY FUND, received June 30.
OpenSecrets found Perriello received PAC contributions totaling $89,600 this election cycle, with the vast majority ($82,100) from ideological PACs—a label the site gives to PACs “associated with advocacy groups that are not tied to a specific industry.” The largest PAC contributions, each totaling $10,000, to Perriello’s campaign so far this cycle are from: AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America, BRIDGE PAC, Common Ground PAC, and Forward Together PAC.
John McGuire
After primarying two-term Republican representative Bob Good in a contest so close it went to a recount, McGuire was elected with 57.5 percent of the vote in the 2024 general election.
As of press time, the freshman congressman has co-sponsored one resolution that was signed into law: a joint resolution enacted May 23, 2025, that “removes emission regulations on hazardous air pollutants under the rubber tire manufacturing source category, specifically from the rubber processing subcategory.”
During his time in office, McGuire has voted for key Republican legislation, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (HR1). He continues to stand by the OBBB as a source of economic relief for Americans. (For more on McGuire and HR1’s impact, see c-ville.com.)
Prior to Congress, McGuire served in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2018 to 2024. He served one year in the state Senate, which he resigned from after being elected to the House of Representatives.
July 15 campaign finance reports compiled by VPAP indicate McGuire has raised roughly $1.74 million this election cycle, and has $524,404 in cash. The three largest donations (totaling $45,907, $27,535, and $25,190) to MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIA since the start of 2025 are all from MCGUIRE VICTORY FUND. The MCGUIRE VICTORY FUND’s largest contribution is from the MCGUIRE RECOUNT COMMITTEE and totals $28,864.
OpenSecrets found McGuire received $421,900 from PACs during the 2025-26 election cycle, which accounts for 24.9 percent of the roughly $1.7 million raised by its count during the same period. The largest PAC contribution to McGuire’s campaign came from the American Revival PAC ($18,650). Other notable contributions, each totaling $10,000, were made by BWX Technologies, National Auto Dealers Association, and SpaceX.
Political forecast
Despite a potentially landmark year for Democrats, McGuire is still favored to win VA-5. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates the seat as “Likely Republican.”
“Democrats in Virginia had a big year last year, obviously. They won all three statewide offices, they got a supermajority in the House of Delegates,” says Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman. “Governor Spanberger, even though she got about 58 percent of the statewide vote, she only got about 46 percent of the vote in District 5.”
With the Virginia Supreme Court ruling that threw out the midcycle redistricting vote, the midterm elections will use the existing congressional map. The current 5th District spans from Charlottesville down to the North Carolina border, including areas like Lynchburg and Danville.
In 2024, VA-5 went for Trump by 12 points, and McGuire was elected the same cycle by 13 points. Coleman says there are more attainable seats Virginia Democrats are eyeing, but VA-5 isn’t completely out of play.
“These federal elections, like Congress, they’re inherently more partisan, polarized,” says Coleman. “I think in District 5 the Republicans do have a decent buffer, but would it surprise me much if Perriello got closer in this district than Spanberger did last year? You know, maybe not.”
The Crystal Ball currently rates VA-2 in the Virginia Beach area as a “Toss-Up,” and VA-1, in the eastern part of the state near Richmond, as “Leans Republican.”
“If Democrats just barely take the House, they could still win District 2. District 1 is a bit harder for Democrats,” says Coleman. “If Democrats flip District 1, then you know they’re going to have a fairly comfortable majority in the House. If they flip District 5, it’s probably going to be an unquestionable blue … Democratic wave.”
“At this point it would be a shock if Democrats don’t win the House,” he adds. “The Senate, at this point, probably is a small advantage—at least—for the Republicans.”
Forecasts from one year ago projected Republicans steadily holding the chamber, but projections have narrowed in the preceding months. The Crystal Ball’s most recent prediction for control of the Senate is a potential 50-50 split in the chamber, in which case Vice President J.D. Vance would cast tie-breaker votes.
The steady drop in Trump’s approval rating has Coleman thinking the battle for control of Congress may get even closer in the final months leading up to Election Day.
“Attitudes towards [Trump], at the end of the day, are going to dominate everything … Nothing I’ve seen since last year’s elections makes me think Trump has gotten even more popular.”
On the issues
In a poll published July 23, PEW Research Center asked registered voters “What one issue would you most like to hear the candidates running for Congress in your district talk about during the campaign?” The economy, or a related topic (cost of living, affordability, etc.), was the top issue for 29 percent of respondents in the open-ended survey.
Prices are up across the board, so it’s no surprise the economy is top of mind for voters. This aligns with Coleman’s experience of the electorate.
“That was basically the issue that put Donald Trump back in the White House, because Biden was seen as not doing enough. And I think Donald Trump really hasn’t done that much. … His focus seems to kind of be on his ballroom and his arch and his projects,” says Coleman. “The Republicans I don’t think are perceived as doing enough to make things cheaper or make things more affordable.”
Perriello lists affordability as a top priority on his campaign website, saying he will “fight to lower costs, clean house on corruption, and restore sanity and common sense to Washington.” Other top priorities for the Democrat include health care, jobs, housing, and blocking the Valley Link Transmission Line.
McGuire has no issues section on his site, but does state he is “Pro-Life. Pro-God. Pro-Gun. Pro-Trump,” fights for “conservative values,” and puts “Virginia first.”
“The issue that most voters are going to kind of have to grapple with when they go into the voting booth is, ‘Is the member of Congress that we elect going to support the president, or are they going to be a check on him?’” says Coleman. “I think that’s really what we’re moving toward.”
On the trail
In August, C-VILLE sat down with Tom Perriello to discuss his priorities, plans heading into November, and highlights from the campaign trail. C-VILLE had not received a response from the McGuire campaign by press time, despite multiple requests to interview the candidate for this story.
C-VILLE: What groups of people and what issues do you think are at the core of the coalition you’re bringing together right now?
Tom Perriello: It’s getting costs down, getting corruption out, and putting common sense back behind the wheel. And I think we see a huge coalition of people coming together around that basic set of priorities.
We can get costs down in the first days in Congress simply by doing the job John McGuire should have done, which is for Congress to block these tariffs and to end this war that Trump has already lost 27 times. Those are direct causes of taking money out of people’s pockets. We also have real problems—like a child care crisis in this country—we could be solving instead of McGuire taking things that are working, like the post office, and figuring out how to break them; taking things like Head Start, that are successful with bipartisan support, and figuring out how to bankrupt them. So what people want is: Stop doing the stupid stuff that McGuire is doing that is making life harder and more expensive, and let’s actually try to solve the problems people want us to solve. Like our rural health care crisis, our child care crisis, our wage crisis, and prepare for what’s coming with artificial intelligence.
If you could ask John McGuire one question, just one, what would be your top question for him?
Why did he put the interest of D.C. lobbyists ahead of his own constituents, and why does he want to represent a district if he’s not actually going to fight for that district? Politics is not a lot of fun, so it seems like the reason you should want to do it is because you really want to help the people that you’re asking to represent. I just don’t understand why you would take the job just to go to Washington and do what the lobbyists want. And not be able to look your voters in the face with a, you know, with a straight face.
So far he’s run away from those questions or thrown random diatribes.
The boundaries of the district have shifted a bit since the last time you represented the 5th. How has it otherwise changed?
I think people are sick of being treated by politicians as having their entire identity be blue or red, and so because I’m a politician that doesn’t fit neatly into those boxes, I’ve been willing to take on the corruption in both political parties and the, you know, conventional wisdom of the establishment of both parties that’s been wrong on, I think, economic issues over the last 30 years.
I don’t think the divisions in our politics right now are as much right versus left as they are bold ideas versus old ideas, and I think people are sick of, frankly, a lot of octogenarian politicians and octogenarian ideas. … People are much more interested in whether the solution will work than what ideological label is put on that idea, and so when we look at the need for universal health care, what people across the district know right now is health care is already being rationed. It is being rationed by algorithms and insurance companies.
I think it’s a district that wants results that work and understands that that’s going to take some bold ideas, and not necessarily ideas that either party has been leading on.
Beyond you as a representative, as a politician, what should voters know about Tom Perriello, the person?
I was born and raised here, and I was a product of incredible public schools as well as finishing at St. Anne’s[-Belfield School]. … I grew up very aware that this community had given my family a shot at the American dream. My dad was a son of Italian immigrants in West Virginia, was the first in his family to get a scholarship to go to UVA, and for him, this community at its best is the best of America.
So much of what I wanted growing up was to make sure that everybody had that same opportunity that I had as a kid to flourish, and that’s strong communities with strong public schools and affordable access to higher education or apprenticeship programs and trades that then pay a living wage that somebody could raise a kid on is so crucial. And it’s not too much to ask that if you work one full-time job, you should not be living in poverty. And if your household is working two full-time jobs, you should be solidly in the middle class, and that is simply not the case in the economy that we’ve built.
I’ve spent most of my life running nonprofit organizations, and I think that politics done right should really be community service taken to scale, and so part of what I try to do with each problem is understand from the people on the front lines what’s working that can be scaled up, what’s not working that needs to be fixed, and then make politics a place for solutions to that, again, whether that reinforces something working well or addressing something that’s wrong.
What else do you think is important people know going into this November?
A lot of this just comes down to where power sits and whether power sits with the people and our communities or whether it sits with these dark money groups. And politics was already corrupt, you know, when I was in before. But it’s hard to explain to people how many zeros have been added to the corruption that John McGuire and others are participating in.
We are standing with communities against these data centers in many of our counties. We’re standing with communities against the Valley Link Transmission Line, and a lot of that is about whether or not powerful interests are going to be able to steamroll our rural communities and dictate terms, or whether our communities are going to get to have agency.
Who holds power matters, and when evil or corrupt people hold power, they can create a lot of pain, and when decent people hold power, they can’t solve every problem, but they can make life easier, and they can protect our core freedoms and opportunities. And this is a time where power is getting concentrated so quickly in the hands of fewer and fewer people—the money, the data, and the political power—that if we don’t start to push back and demand power for the communities and the people around here, there’ll be nothing left to defend. And so I think the fault line in this election, in some ways, is not as much about right versus left. It really is about those who are going to fight to protect the power of everyday folks and our communities, or are going to pour fuel on the fire of our democracy that is concentrating power in fewer and fewer hands.
Anything else you would like to add?
This is a beautiful fricking district. … As you drive down, you see farms and fields, you see vineyards and distilleries, you see small business owners, you see a lot of history, and I really felt that with the 250th anniversary of the Declaration. You’ve got Appomattox, where the Civil War ends, and you have so much history with the Bedford Boys and with Prince Edward and the rest. But it’s an amazing place, and I think that’s part of why I feel like the 5th District is as good a district as any for us to say, you know, ‘Not on our watch.’ We’re not going to allow this destruction of the American experiment here. But also, we have a bold tradition of big thinkers and doers who shape the next chapter of history. The first person to hold the seat was James Madison, who wrote the U.S. Constitution. It’s a district where Barbara Johns walked out of schools—the Moton High School—to demand integration. It’s where the Bedford Boys had the largest loss on the day of Normandy per capita of any city in America. We are a district of heroes, and I think right now we’re looking for a group of folks who are going to meet this moment with us and say we are going to demand a more perfect union. That’s what we’re going to head for.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Charlottesville native Tom Perriello served Virginia’s 5th District once before, when he was elected to the House of Representatives in 2008. He credits his vote in favor of the Affordable Care Act for his lost reelection bid in 2010.
