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When the Virginia Department of Education last calculated a formula to determine how easily each locality can afford the cost of public school, staff used a population count of 51,132 for the City of Charlottesville.
That number is what the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia estimated the city’s population was as of July 1, 2023. State government and the education department rely on Weldon Cooper’s figures for official purposes, such as the local composite index for education funding.
For four years after the 2020 census, the agency used a higher number out of a belief the federal count conducted in April of that year failed to take into account that many students had left the area due to the pandemic. This year, Weldon Cooper walked back its earlier numbers and made an official estimate of 46,923 as of July 1, 2025.
“The new base population for Virginia and its counties and cities is almost identical to the census count,” said Qian Cai, director of the Demographics Research Group at Weldon Cooper, in a March 5 email.
Since that time, the U.S. Census Bureau has released updated estimates that include backdated figures putting Charlottesville’s population at 44,388, a 4.58 percent decline from the official census count of 46,518 in 2020.
The lower number means that Charlottesville would still be eligible to revert to a town in Albemarle County. Under Virginia law, that process can begin if a city is below 50,000. A previous effort to do so was last made in the 1990s but fought vigorously in court.
Charlottesville City Manager Sam Sanders informed City Council of the lower numbers when he introduced a draft budget on March 2.
“I have a meeting on my calendar to have some conversation with some folks because I like a bigger number than that,” Sanders said.
A request for comment was sent to the City of Charlottesville, seeking clarification of why Sanders would like the higher number, but we received no answer before press time.
Mayor Juandiego Wade said he has not seen an official explanation for the decline, but claimed he doesn’t consider it significant.
“It seems like there are always swings in the numbers based on changing parameters,” Wade said in an email.
Councilor Michael Payne said he was not shocked given that other data points such as enrollment have remained flat despite Weldon Cooper’s initial higher numbers. He said there could be effects.
“What our census population is will directly impact how much funding we’re allocated for various federal and state level programs,” Payne said in an email.
No other localities in the Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission had their official population reduced. According to the census, Albemarle has grown 5.27 percent since 2020 with a mid-2025 population of 118,536. Louisa County’s growth rate is 14.2 percent with a July 2025 count of 42,924.
