While Virginia Democrats celebrated their winning control of the Virginia Senate and picking up four seats in the House of Delegates, the practical effect the victory will have on the near-term legislative agenda appears modest.
"I don’t think you will see a great sea change on a variety of issues," says State Senator Creigh Deeds, explaining that despite currently being under GOP control, the Senate is fairly moderate.
 "I don’t think you will see a great sea change on a variety of issues," says State Senator Creigh Deeds, explaining that despite currently being under GOP control, the Senate is fairly moderate. |
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Not that Deeds isn’t happy about the results or that they are not significant. Indeed, Deeds says a bigger change would have occurred if the GOP had retained control, because had they done so in the face of several moderate Republicans leaving the Senate, it would have meant a sharp ideological shift to the right. The election, Deeds says, "ensures the Senate will remain in moderate hands."
Deeds notes, however, that the more "ideologically driven" House, still under GOP control, remains a hurdle to the Democratic agenda. On specific issues, Deeds mentioned early childhood education, including Governor Tim Kaine’s proposal for pilot pre-K programs, as one that might see another push.
Republican Albemarle County Delegate Rob Bell predicts some tension. He looks specifically at the relationship between himself and the slated chairman of the courts committee, where he sees differences on capital punishment and sentencing. "Some of the things we can work out compromises on, and other things we’ll have to agree to disagree," says Bell. He particularly hopes to see compromise on mental health reform. "We’ve all been working on this mental health piece, so I think you’ll see most of that not be partisan bills. I hope not."
Like Deeds, Lowell Feld, founder and editor of RaisingKaine.com, Virginia’s largest progressive blog, says the Senate "already was pretty friendly to Kaine." According to Feld, the "most important" effect of the election is that Senate control guarantees the Democrats a seat at the table for the 2011 redistricting. Deeds called Senate control "critical for redistricting." Bell notes that redistricting is still three years away: "We have at least one intervening election, so we have a lot of water under the bridge until we get there."
Deeds said he is in favor of nonpartisan redistricting, and that "the only way to move that ball forward was [the Democratic Party] gaining leverage" in the process. "I’m convinced [nonpartisan redistricting] can happen," he says, although he acknowledges Senate Democrats may not be so quick to give up their newfound power.
Barring nonpartisan redistricting, Deeds is likely to play a major role in the process, whether as the second-ranking Democratic member of the Privileges and Elections Committee, or as governor, should he decide to run for, and win, the office in 2009.
Lastly, on top of recent victories by Democrats Mark Warner (governor 2001), Kaine (governor 2005) and Jim Webb (U.S. Senate 2006), the election provides further evidence that our once reliably red state is trending blue, which could have implications for the GOP’s fortunes nationally as well as within the Commonwealth.
Warner is heavily favored to win the 2008 Senate race. As for the presidential election, the last time Virginia voted Democratic was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but the last time Virginia voted Democratic and the nation elected a Republican president was Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Therefore, chances are, if Virginia goes blue, so goes the country.
Even retiring Republican U.S. Senator John Warner called out the GOP following the elections. "In the past few years, the Republican Party of Virginia has drifted from the time-honored principle of the ‘big tent’ GOP," Warner said in a statement released on November 7. "In my judgment, yesterday’s election results demonstrate that Virginia voters value greatly political leaders who are willing to reach reasonable solutions and tackle big issues ranging from the budget to immigration to the environment and transportation."
Still, "anyone who says Virginia is Democratic hasn’t campaigned in Prince William County, in Stafford County…[or] in the Southside of the state," Deeds says. "Virginia is still a right-of-center state."
Although Feld characterized the state as "purple, almost shading into blue," practically his view wasn’t far from Deeds’. "These are Virginia Democrats," Feld says. "They are pragmatic and centrist."
