For both fans and foes of the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority’s (RWSA) 50-year Community Water Supply Plan, glasses will remain half-full or half-empty until expansion studies of the Ragged Mountain Reservoir and Lower Ragged Mountain Dam are completed.
On Friday, the RWSA released a review of engineering firm Gannett Fleming’s 2004 water demand analysis, along with a projection of the urban service area’s water demand for 2060. Swartz Engineering Economics was hired by the RWSA for roughly $25,000 to complete the study. The projected demand, 18.45 million gallons per day (MGD), falls in the same splash zone as Gannett Fleming’s 18.7MGD projection for 2055.
The review was conducted, in part, to revisit the “methodology and forecasting” of the 2004 demand analysis, which concluded with a 2002 drought that saw water demand in sections of the urban service area drop by as much as 20 percent. (Verdict? “Properly performed,” “reasonable and sound.”)
Swartz also reviewed the past six years in water issues, from the after-effects of former Governor Mark Warner’s emergency drought declaration in 2002 to the local impact of the national economic crisis. These factors were measured against future developments that might impact demand—from increased student enrollment at UVA, where per capita use in fiscal 2010 was 7,000 gallons lower than a 1999 peak, to the National Ground Intelligence Center and a new Martha Jefferson Hospital with an enlarged footprint.
The review concludes that the rate of growth in water demand seems consistent with Gannett Fleming’s 2004 study. “However…we see potential for several one-time steps up in water demand due to planned development,” according to the report.
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