An old political adage says that every election is either about “keeping a good thing going” or “throwing the bums out.” Dems hope that a handful of victories in the Commonwealth’s May elections signals that voters are leaning towards the latter choice.
Newly elected City Councilor Dave Norris, for one, is feeling flush. “The margin of recent Democratic success in Charlottesville, Tim Kaine’s gubernatorial victory, and Democratic victories in the House of Delegates all certainly point toward a significant trend,” he says.
The key to victory for Dems was an energized base. “Traditionally low-turnout races like local races…are a great barometer of political momentum or base excitement,” claims blogger Paul Anderson of Virginia Centrist.com.
An energized, highly polarized base could cause voters to turn against their incumbents. “That’s good for Democrats,” argues a blogger who goes by the moniker “Not Larry Sabato.” NLS writes that “because the incumbents are Republican, and they have been relying on the crossover vote for many years to survive.”
Additionally, the fired-up base puts Virginia’s Democratic campaigners in a unique spot. They are essentially “free to chase swing voters, and even try to make inroads with traditional Republican constituencies, without risking alienating the base,” argues Anderson. This is exactly why many left-leaning Virginians are getting geared up for Jim Webb’s attempt to topple incumbent Senator George Allen. Webb, a novelist and former Marine has been characterized by UVA professor and ubiquitous political analyst Larry Sabato (not “Not Larry Sabato”) as “Allen’s worst nightmare: a war hero and a Reagan appointee who holds moderate positions.”
Will this all pay off in November for Virginia Dems? It’s a promising start, but they’re confronted with large funding discrepancies, gerrymandered districts, and political entrenchment. “We can’t be complacent,” says Norris, “we’ve got to fight for every district.”—David Goodman
