Tom Perriello has come a long way, literally and figuratively, in the past two-and-a-half months. While he’s racked up the mileage traveling the expansive Fifth Congressional District in his bid to unseat six-term incumbent Virgil Goode, he has also closed a 34-point gap in mid-August to a mere three points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted this weekend with a margin of sampling error of 4 points.
SurveyUSA says 50 percent of likely voters would cast ballots for Goode, while 47 percent would go to Perriello. The other 3 percent are undecided.
SurveyUSA, however, predicts a Goode victory if African-Americans make up 22 percent or less of voters. Black voters lean toward Perriello by 70 points, while white voters lean Goode by 25 points.
In other (completely unsurprising) demographic breakdowns, Perriello wins with Democrats, moderates, liberals, pro-choicers, women, young people and those who occasionally or never attend religious service.
The poll was conducted for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WTVR-TV Richmond.
Even if Perriello loses, he can take heart in those polling numbers. In his last six elections, Goode hasn’t had a margin of victory closer than 19.5 points.
