We may have to wait until the dust settles, but for all intents and purposes, it seems as if Tom Perriello has defeated Virgil Goode for the Fifth District congressional seat.
Perriello, whose camp was stationed at Gravity Lounge for the evening, arrived and addressed the crowd around 11pm. It wasn’t exactly a fiery victory speech, but certainly was not a concession speech.
"As I understand it, CNN just called this race for us," said Perriello to a raucus crowd at Gravity Lounge. "We obviously believe in making sure that every vote is counted. …We are confident at the end of the day that we are going to win this thing.
"We may have a long night ahead of us, and maybe even a long week," said Perriello, as he thanked his supporters both in Charlottesville and Southside. "We took a race that no one gave much a chance and turned into a situation where we’re ahead and confident that we’re going to stay ahead through the end of this thing."
The Virgina State Board of Elections shows that 305 of 307 Fifth District precincts have reported, giving Perriello a 2,272 vote advantage. Here’s the math on what’s left, which shows that Perriello is likely to keep this thing.
One of those precincts out is in Lunenburg County. In 2006, only 385 votes were cast in that precinct, 78 percent of them to Goode. This year, the gap is much smaller in the county between Goode and Perriello, with Goode up 4 points. Assuming turnout is about 60 percent greater than in 2006, and assuming that only 30 percent vote for Perriello, that only gives Goode a net of 250 votes.
The other precinct that hasn’t reported is the absentee precinct in Campbell County, another heavily Goode county in 2006. In 2006, absentees went 69 percent to Goode. So assuming that Goode gets a generous 65 percent, and assuming that absentees are triple from their 2006 level, that gives Goode a net of 450 votes.
Subtract those 700 votes from Perriello’s margin, and he’s still up by more than 1,500 votes with only the provisional ballots left to count.
"This election also needs to be about unity and bringing us together," said Perriello at the end of his four-minute remarks to the Charlottesville crowd. "Congressman Goode and his family have a long history of service to this district, a tradtion that I strongly respect. However things play out here, we need to make sure that at the end of the day we’re Americans, we’re Virginians, and we’re focused on problem solving and not personal politics."
